At today's session, the National Bank of Macedonia Council reviewed the latest Quarterly Report.

Skopje, 24 November 2011

Press release of the NBRM

At today's session, the National Bank of Macedonia Council reviewed the latest Quarterly Report. 

According to current trends and expectations for the end of the year, estimates for GDP growth in 2011 remain unchanged at around 3.5%, which given the currently worsened global environment reflects the improved performance in the first half of the year. The average inflation in 2011 is expected to be lower than previous projections (3.9% vs. the previously projected rate of 4.5%) due to the lower actual inflation so far and lower expected growth in world oil and food prices in the last quarter of the year. In the external sector it is estimated to achieve a lower current account deficit in 2011 compared to previous expectations (from 5.5% to 4.8% of GDP), mainly resulting from more favorable expectations about inflows from private transfers, the most important surplus component of the current account. Within the banking sector, the broadest money supply M4 and banks' total loans at the end of 2011 are expected  to be higher by 9% and 9.2%, respectively on an annual basis (versus 11.4% and 12.5%, respectively in the July projection). The downward revision reflects the lower performances and expectations for increased caution of banks under the uncertain global environment.

The macroeconomic scenario for 2012 envisages GDP growth of 3%, which is expected to be driven by domestic demand, mainly from investments. In terms of inflation expectations are in terms of its significant slowdown in 2012 to about 2%, reflecting the expected decline in world prices of oil and food, and the lower foreign inflation. Current account deficit in 2012 is expected to maintain the level of 2011 (4.8% of GDP), while moderately improving trade balance and amid more intense growth of capital flows, which are expected to provide further accumulation of foreign reserves. The banking sector will continue to support the growth of domestic economy also in 2012, with the credit growth expected to be 8% on an annual basis, in conditions of projected annual growth of money supply by 9.8%. However, given current developments in the debt crisis in the euro zone and the high uncertainty associated with the prospects of the global economy, macroeconomic projections for 2012 have featured a number of risks, which requires constant monitoring and thorough analysis of recent macroeconomic developments, with purpose of timely adjustment of the monetary policy.

At today's session, the National Bank Council adopted a new Decision on the manner and conditions under which residents who are not authorized banks may open and hold accounts abroad.

At today's session, the Council adopted a postponement of the date of application of the regulation on capital requirements to cover operational risk, from December 31, 2011 to June 30, 2012. Such postponement is to enable effective and appropriate application of this regulation and its entry into force simultaneously with the regulation on capital requirements to cover credit risk.

The Council was informed on current issues from the scope of the operations of the National Bank.

 Governor's Office