28-29 April 2014, Skopje

3rd Research Conference "Towards Recovery and Sustainable Growth in the Altered Global Environment"

Program                                                                                          Print version of Program

Venue: Alexandar Palace Hotel

28 April 2014 (Monday)

9.00-11.15     Session I: Keynote Lectures and Panel Discussion
Chair: Saso Arsov, Board member, NBRM
9.00     Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Opening speech
9.10     Erdem Basci, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, keynote lecture (presentation PDF)
9.40     Martine Guerguil, Deputy Director of Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund, keynote lecture (presentation PDF)
10.10     Philip Turner, Deputy Head of Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements, keynote lecture (presentation PDF)

10.40     Discussion

11.10     Announcement of the Annual Award of the NBRM for the best paper in macroeconomics by a young researcher

11.15     Coffee break

11.30 - 13.00     Session II: Bank Lending and Spillovers to the Real Sector
Chair: Anita Angelovska-Bezoska, Vice Governor, NBRM
11.30     Matija Lozej, Uros Herman, Bank of Slovenia, The Effect of Loan Supply Shocks on Bank Lending and the Real Economy: Evidence from Slovenia (presentation PDF)
11.50     Peter Harasztosi, Marianna Endresz, Central Bank of Hungary, Corporate Foreign Currency Borrowing and Investment, the Case of Hungary (presentation PDF)
12.10     Gerti Shijaku, Bank of Albania, Foreign Currency Lending in Albania (presentation PDF)
12.30     Daniela Pulst, European Central Bank, Discussant

12.45     Discussion

13.00     Lunch

14.00 - 15.30     Session III: Private Sector Behavior and Its Financial and Macroeconomic Impacts 
Chair: Maja Kadievska-Vojnovik, Vice Governor, NBRM
14.00     Ivana Rajkovic, Ranko Jelic, Branko Urosevic, National Bank of Serbia, Dollarization of Deposits in Short and Long Run: Evidence from CESE Countries (presentation PDF)
14.20     Svilen Pachedzhiev, Zornitsa Vladova, Tania Karamisheva, Bulgarian National Bank, Analysis of the Deleveraging Process of Non-Financial Enterprises in Bulgaria (presentation PDF)
14.40     Serife Genc, Osman Furkan Abbasoglu, Yasin Mimir, Istanbul School of Central Banking, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Cross-Sectional Facts on Bank Balance Sheets over the Business Cycle (presentation PDF)
15.00     Mariya Hake, European Commission, Discussant (presentation PDF)

15.15     Discussion

15.30     Coffee break

15.45 - 17.00     Session IV: Measuring and Assessing Financial Stability
Chair: Milica Arnaudova Stojanovska, General Manager, NBRM
15.45     Mirna Dumicic, Croatian National Bank, Measuring Financial Stability - Systemic Risk Accumulation and Materialization vs. Financial System Resilience; (presentation PDF)
16.05     Zeljka Asanovic, Central Bank of Montenegro, Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crisis in Montenegro; (presentation PDF)
16.25     Goran Petreski, Faculty of Economics Skopje, Discussant (presentation PDF)

16.40     Discussion

29 April 2014 (Tuesday)

9.30 - 11.00     Session V: Macroeconomic Issues in the Process of Global and Regional Recovery
Chair: Vit Barta, Czech National Bank, Advisor of Governor
9.30     Kurmas Akdogan, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Asymmetric Behaviour of Inflation around the Target in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Markets (presentation PDF)
9.50     Selena Begovic, School of Economics and Business, University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, The Effect of Currency Board Arrangements on Inflation Performance in European Transition Countries (presentation PDF)
10.10     Isabella Moder, Elisabeth Beckmann, National Bank of Austria, Households’ Expectations and Macroeconomic Outcomes - Evidence from the Euro Survey (presentation PDF)
10.30     Peter Sanfey, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Discussant

10.45     Discussion

11.00     Coffee break

11.15 - 13.00     Session VI: Fiscal Consolidation and Public Debt Sustainability 
Chair: Aneta Krstevska, Chief Economist, NBRM
11.15     Vivian Norambuena, Georgetown University Washington DC, Serial Defaulters: An Attempt to Account for the Unobservable (presentation PDF)
11.35     Rilind Kabashi, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Effects of Fiscal Policy on the Post Crisis Recovery of European Economies (presentation PDF)
11.55     Branimir Jovanovik, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Discussant  (presentation PDF)

12.10     Discussion

12.25     Wrap up and closing of the conference           

12.30     Lunch