Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0

Author-Name: Branimir Jovanovic
Author-Name-First: Branimir
Author-Name-Last: Jovanovic
Author-Email: brantscho@gmail.com
Author-Workplace-Name: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

Author-Name: Egzona Hani
Author-Name-First: Egzona
Author-Name-Last: Hani
Author-Email: HaniE@nbrm.mk
Author-Workplace-Name: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

Author-Name: Ljupka Georgievska
Author-Name-First: Ljupka
Author-Name-Last: Georgievska
Author-Email: georgievskal@nbrm.mk
Author-Workplace-Name: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

Title:  Post-Crisis Credit Slowdown in South-East Europe – Return to Normality?

Abstract: What explains the post-crisis slowdown in bank credit to private sector in the South-East European economies? We try to answer this question, by comparing the actual credit growth to the fundamental and equilibrium growths. The fundamental growth is defined as the growth justified by the fundamentals, the equilibrium growth – as the growth consistent with the economy being in medium-term equilibrium. Results suggest that the slowdown reflects both return of the credit activity to its fundamental value, and return of the fundamental values to their equilibrium levels, after years of excessiveness during the precrisis period. Rapid credit growth, as in the pre-crisis period, should not be expected in the near future.

Length:  53
Creation-Date:  2014-10
File-URL: http://www.nbrm.mk/WBStorage/Files/WebBuilder_Post_crisis_slow_down_SEE.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First version, 2014
Number: 2014-01
Classification-JEL: E44, E51, G21
Keywords:  credit growth, equilibrium credit, fundamental credit, South-East Europe
Handle: RePEc:mae:wpaper:2014-01