The NBRNM's research activity
Why do we do research?
The research activity in the National bank has a long tradition and historically seen, it has been constantly promoted. There are two main reasons for our research, which are actually common to the research activity of the central banks. First, research helps the decision-making process in the field of monetary policy, exchange rate policy, financial stability and macro-prudential policy, as well as in other fields from the scope of operation. Second, the research into individual economic issues arouses academic discussion and expands the knowledge of different areas important for the conduct of macroeconomic policies.
The development of the research activity in areas crucial for the efficient achievement of the National bank's objectives is also stated as one of the strategic objectives within the NBRM Strategy.
What prerequisites are required for quality research?
One of the main prerequisites for research activity is the development and maintenance of databases. In this context, the connection of the statistical and research activity of the National bank comes to the fore. In addition to data compiled in the National bank, statistical databases also include data from external (domestic and foreign) sources. Long series of data are solid basis for well-founded conclusions about the movements of the analyzed variables.
In addition to the statistical series, some of the researches are based on conducted surveys, such as the Survey on Inflation Expectations and the Bank Lending Survey, that have been conducted for a long period of time, as well as the Survey on banks' perceptions of the risks in their operations. Depending on the needs, separate surveys are sometimes conducted.
One of the main prerequisites for our research is the promotion and application of various research techniques, starting from the most basic statistical analysis techniques, up to modern econometric techniques, which require the application of special software packages. It should be noted that the National bank, historically, leads in the construction of macroeconomic models in Macedonia and at the same time actively uses the models as one of the many tools in the decision-making process.
In this series of prerequisites, human potential must not be forgotten, as a key factor for quality research. The National bank has been constantly investing in maintenance and development of the analytical and research capacity of its employees, through appropriate training courses, and special attention is focused on the interaction with both domestic and foreign research institutions. In recent years, there is an organization of a regular annual international research conference and regular quarterly sessions of the Researchers' Club, as an opportunity for exchange of experiences with the public in the field of research.
How to decide on research topics?
The National bank regularly monitors the trends in central banking. Consequently, some of the research topics refer to current research issues, and some focus on fundamental issues, as well as support to the decision-making process and policy conduct. However, defining research topics should primarily support the policy conduct. The main research areas are defined within the Research Activity Program, which is prepared each year for the next three years, with contribution by all sectors and organizational units, and which is adopted by the National bank Council. Within the research areas, the specific research issues are more thoroughly determined in the annual Plan of Activities of the National bank, which is also adopted by the National bank Council. At the same time, some of the research topics impose themselves in the daily operations according to their relevance and consequently do not have to be part of the Research Activity Program. The new research initiative may come from management or from researchers. The overall research activity is regulated by internal policies and procedures, whereby the approval and publication process is based on the application of international practice standards.
Where are the researches published?
The National bank's research activity is reflected through several publications:
- The National bank's regular reports include analysis of the main indicators important for the policy conduct. Occasionally, regular reports also include short analyses on certain topics within the Appendices;
- Research materials contain an overview of certain research issues and are often based on the application of modern research techniques or surveys. They are usually author's papers which obligatorily contain a statement of the authors that the presented views are personal and do not have to correspond with the National bank's views;
- The analyses contain an overview of certain research issues or discussion of individual policy aspects, whereby the views can be those of the authors (which is respectively designated) or of the National bank;
- Other materials, including press releases regarding the working of the Committee for Operational Monetary Policy, also include findings based on research, macroeconomic forecasts, and the decisions in the field of monetary or macro-prudential policy are based on research of the respective area.
The dynamic and complex environment imposes a need for quality analytical and research potential. Consequently, the National bank will continue to support and promote the research activity.