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7-8 April 2016, Skopje

5th Research Conference "Economic and Financial Cycle Spillovers: Reconsidering Domestic and Cross-Border Channels and Policy Responses"

Program                                                                                          Print version of Program

Venue: Holiday Inn Hotel

7 April 2016 (Thursday)

8.30- 9.00     Registration

9.00-11.00     Session I - Keynote Lecture and Panel Discussion

9.00     Dimitar Bogov, Governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Opening speech

9.10     Boris Vujčić, Governor, Croatian National Bank, Keynote lecturer

9.40     Panel discussion on policy issues
Chair: Mihail Petkovski, Board member, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
Boris Vujčić, Governor of the Croatian National Bank, Keynote lecturer
Dubravko Mihaljek, Bank for International Settlements, Discussant
Marko Košak, Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Discussant
Marek Dabrowski, Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), Discussant

10.40     Discussion

10.55     Announcement of the Annual Award of the NBRM for the best paper in macroeconomics and banking written by a young researcher

11.00     Coffee break

11.30 - 13.00     Session II: Economic and Financial Cycles: Synchronization and Spillover Channels
Chair: Lubomír Lízal, Bank Board Member, Czech National Bank

11.30     Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, Central Bank of Iceland, The Long History of Financial Boom-Bust Cycles in Iceland (presentation PDF)

11.50     Balázs Égert, OECD, The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality

12.10     Mite Miteski, Ljupka Georgievska, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Financial and Real Business Cycle Synchronization in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries (presentation PDF)

12.30     Discussant: Meta Ahtik, Head of Section, Bank of Slovenia

12.45     Discussion

13.00     Lunch

14.00 - 15.30     Session III: Monetary Policy Effects on the Economic and Financial Cycles
Chair: Ana Mitreska, Head of Monetary Policy and Research Department, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

14.00     Cengiz Tunç, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity in Turkey (presentation PDF)

14.20     Gerti Shijaku, Bank of Albania, The Macroeconomic Pass-Through Effects of Monetary Policy through Sign Restrictions Approach: In the Case of Albania (presentation PDF)

14.40     Tandoğan Polat, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Contribution of New Monetary Policy Framework to Financial Stability and to Mitigate Capital Flow Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy

15.00     Discussant: Rilind Kabashi, Head of Economic Modelling Unit, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia 

15.15     Discussion

15.30     Coffee break

16.00 - 17.30     Session IV: Economic and Financial Cross-Border Spillovers
Chair: Goran Petrevski, Faculty of Economics, Skopje

16.00     Neslihan Kaya Ekşi, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Cross-Border Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Demand-Pull or Supply-Push? (presentation PDF)

16.20     Maja Ivanović, Central Bank of Montenegro, Ownership, Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Central and Eastern Europe (presentation PDF)

16.40     Robert Kelm, National Bank of Poland, The Subprime Crisis, Exchange Rate and the Polish External Trade: Stylized Facts and Facts (presentation PDF)

17.00     Discussant: Mirna Dumičić, Senior Advisor, Financial Stability Department, Croatian National Bank

17.15     Discussion

17.30     End of the first conference day

8 April 2016 (Friday)

9.00 - 10.30     Session V: Financial Stability Challenges: Balancing Stability and Growth
Chair: Frosina Celeska, Deputy Head of the Financial Stability and Banking Regulation Department, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

9.00     Yannick Lucotte, ESG Management School, Paris, France, Is there a Competition-Stability Trade-off in European Banking? (presentation PDF)

9.20     Antje Hildebrandt, National Bank of Austria, Current Risks in the CESEE Residential Property Market: Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey

9.40     Ana Martinis, Igor Ljubaj, Croatian National Bank, Corporate Debt Overhang in Croatia – Micro-Assessment and Macro-Implications (presentation PDF)

10.00     Discussant: Piotr Macki, Economist, International Department, European Central Bank

10.15     Discussion

10.30     Coffee break

11.00 - 12.30     Session VI: Financial Stability, Monetary Policy and Expectations
Chair: Aneta Krstevska, Chief Economist, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

11.00     Zubeyir Kılınç, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, In Search of the Drivers of the Turkish Consumer Confidence (presentation PDF)

11.20     Elena Mucheva-Mihajlovska, Aleksandar Petreski, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Aggregate Indices for Financial Stability as Early Warning Indicators for the Monetary Measures in the Republic of Macedonia (presentation PDF)

11.40     Mustafa Utku Özmen, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Disaggregated Evidence for Exchange Rate and Import Price Pass-through in Turkey in the Light of Identification Issues, Aggregation Bias and Heterogeneity (presentation PDF)

12.00     Discussant: Ádám Banai, Head of Applied Research and Stress Testing Department, Central Bank of Hungary

12.15     Discussion

12.30     Wrap-up and closing of the conference

12.30     Lunch